Nuclear capabilities in the hands of Iran are a game changer that will certainly spark a nuclear arms race that will undermine regional security in the Middle East. This is a threat not only to Israel but also to the moderate countries in the Middle East and well beyond.
The Joint Comprehensive Agreement reached between the P5+1 and Iran on July 14, 2015 impairs Israel’s national security.
The agreement enables Iran to continue its significant enrichment of uranium far beyond any practical civilian needs. These capabilities have been acquired by deception, concealment, and above all recurring violations of UN Security Council resolutions.
In placing partial constraints for a limited number of years and areas, the agreement in effect only postpones Iran’s achievement of military nuclear capability. When these limitations end, Iran will be able to increase its overall enrichment capacity significantly.
The agreement does not adequately limit Iran’s research and development capabilities, particularly with regard to advanced centrifuges. In the case of "breakout" to a nuclear device, Iran could rely on its ability to enrich rapidly and covertly, shortening the time needed to produce a bomb.
Iran already has the enrichment capability to produce a bomb. It also has the suitable means of delivery (ballistic missiles and advanced guided missiles). Without limitations on its weaponization, the way is paved for Iran to assemble a bomb.
The agreement curtails UN Security Council resolutions that imposed an arms embargo on Iran and restrictions on its ballistic missile capabilities. The outcome of such concessions could enable Iran to further develop its missile program and to enhance its conventional military capabilities.
The agreement does not ensure a tight enough monitoring and verification mechanism. Iran has achieved its advanced nuclear capability covertly despite the IAEA’s safeguards mechanism, and will be able to continue deceiving, evading and concealing.
The imminent removal of sanctions imposed on Iran eliminates the most efficient leverage that was restricting Iran’s actions and that brought it to the negotiating table in the first place. Maintaining the pressure is the only means of ensuring that Iran will uphold its commitments.
As part of the economic benefits of the agreement, Iran will gain access to frozen funds (up to $150 billion). These funds will be used to increase Iran’s subversive activities in the region and its support of terror (including Hezbollah) against Israel and its neighbors, as well as to strengthen the rule of the Ayatollahs. Iran’s subversive activities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen will only increase, as it will enjoy international legitimacy deriving from this agreement and an empowered status as a threshold nuclear state.
Nuclear capabilities in the hands of Iran are a game changer and will almost certainly spark a nuclear arms race that will undermine regional security in the Middle East. A nuclear Iran is a threat not only to Israel but also to the moderate countries in the Middle East and well beyond.