Gen. Aviv kochavi at the Herzliya Conference that Iran a day produced material of four nuclear bombs
תאריך: 02/02/2012, 10:13
מחבר: יונתן אוריך, אתר צה”ל
Head of intelligence, Gen. Aviv kochavi, today (Thursday) during the 12th Herzliya Conference and described the Jolt and regional effects on Israel security.
Gen. planets described at length the arguments and the reasons behind the upheaval in the Middle East and most likely the most prominent phenomenon is the attic of the block, of the Arab public. “The public, which for decades was unable to express its aspirations, discovered one of his ability and his voice and trying to translate it into political power. This is the essence of the revolution in the Middle East. It can evolve into many directions, “he said.
Charge head said that “this public teaching he could overthrow regimes change, agenda and format. He never broke into squares with an agenda, he broke against the corruption and distortion against work being missing. It requires basic rights: to make a living, to raise a family, live. Whoever leads this not surprisingly, they’re young “. According to him, many of them unemployed, living in their parents ‘ homes until the age of 30, as a result of social problems.
“The young of today are more educated, more connected and more vulnerable to the realities reflected him through the tv screens, the Internet and the iPhone, in Arab countries
Middle East and the world. The contrast between what he sees what he’s experiencing, becomes larger. Contemporary Arab young frustrated and demanding even more, said the head of that charge, “the combination of frustration, corruption and lack of personal horizon is
The burn of the upheaval in the Middle East. That’s what carried on waves of new media, distributed everywhere.
To be fed. The Jolt that can last for many years, until the fundamental problems can be resolved. “
More and more countries around us are UN-Islamic Peru
The result of the upheaval in the Middle East, according to the head she gave the Central Government leader, is weakened and loses its power in Arab countries. On the other hand, the public is getting stronger. “Moreover, the main asset of the property regime, fear and awe with which could actually lead the country — is fading and below it appears and deep consideration to the Arab public immeasurably,” said the champion, “the public dare, dare much less regime, for the first time in decades the public has become crucial for the leaders and regimes”.
“The Jolt open to change in the Middle East and is the rise of Islam — even
In Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt, the top charge, noting that although ש”האסלאם was not the driving force of the revolution, and not its first advanced aviation. The young do not
Broke into Tahrir with Quran books. They broke through against – all those things mentioned.
The parties recognize the enormous wave asamiot, Broads and they try to translate it into political capital. He claimed that Islam is trying to enter those countries losing ground.
Clear ideology and the same property.
It also gave the head against the emergence of solidarity among Muslim groups “operating between the Arab States and in wider circles. “The models may be varied – Islamic-based regimes, integrate Islam. Political power
Of Egypt, but it probably will continue to be the focus of very significant formation of the Middle East. Governmental model generated there may radiate very prominently on all the Middle East. “
Planetary champion stated that these trends are bringing to this ש”יותר and more countries around us are in leadership of Peru-Islamic regimes, and the element that characterizes national regimes in the Middle East in recent years-changes. The Islamic element becomes more dominant.
The champion added, saying that “the changes causes no Jolt only occur between and among the Government, but also between countries. A growing phenomenon is tapering of Jolt is the tension between Turkey and Iran-Saudi Arabia. Each strives for regional hegemony and influence. Saudi Arabia aims to preserve the old order, while Turkey and Iran want to affect the entire Middle East. “
Iran continues to operate to exclude attacks against Israel
Referring to the charge that Iran claimed top Iranian Director agenda
To increase its influence in the world and in the Middle East in particular. “The forces of the revolution in how
Systematically, with long arms, weaponry and weapon placement for all countries of the region as much as possible. Even nowadays they work for terrorist attacks against Israel and the Jewish people. Iran
Tried immediately with the beginning and nowadays, to penetrate to the revolution and to run them, “he said.
However, the champion planetary noted that Turkey is not ready to give up the opportunity to expand its influence in the Middle East. “She represents alternative regimen combining democracy with Islam, a national passion with close contact with the West, claimed he gave head to despite repeated attempts to connect Turkey to Iran in recent months, tensions and sharpen with a series of steps taken by Turkey which works the combination against the Iranian interests. The poster is free and funded by Syria army over the daily assistance of the Turks.
Against both, Saudi Arabia maintains the old settlement ו”מנסה to do anything to accommodate
The jolt. According to the planetary champion, Saudi Arabia “saw threat in Iran, and the Jolt and forces the Iranian race, wakened from his” old ה’ענק and Saudi Arabia into motion. The Terminal is sending 1,000 troops to Bahrain where Iran sought to deepen overriding leg Moreover, it participates in front and behind the scenes in imposing sanctions against Iran. The embargo against Iran would have been possible if not for Saudi Arabia is committed to the oil in place.
The result, according to jolt gave head, the radical axis is supported by Syria Lebanon-Iran-Hezbollah-on the one hand, and Iran-Hamas-Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, absorbs shocks. “Mtadrr State in Syria, the pressures against Iran, the impact
Hamas and Hezbollah even due to the Jolt, the spearhead of Iran in the region, quite a few difficulties against the backdrop of what is happening in Syria and internal affairs, “noted Mayor gave.
Esteem, the economy in all countries of the Middle East is in a situation of systematic degradation, both in the context of growth and inflation, unemployment and basic side. “The economy.
There will be a test of all the countries in the region. There is tremendous potential economic problems later and shaking, but there can be and need to focus on internal issues rather than outdoor adventures, “he States.
Every tenth House in Lebanon have missiles or launch position storage
Advance survey gave the operational changes it needs to operate,
Claiming that “our enemies seek to offset the advantage the IDF would meet with him whenever the enemy on the battlefield superiority and trim and rear intelligence to create impact.
Click – so you cannot get in front of the army. The meaning is translated for our enemies to increase fire, missiles and rockets, and the disappearance of the battlefield “.
“The intensification of the fire surface-to-surface missiles, significantly increasing,” added the top charge, noting that “by our enemies now have 200,000 capable missiles and rockets hit in Israel. Most ranges of 40 miles, thousands even hundreds of miles away. More
Missile and rocket are the depth of the enemy, minimizing the effective maneuver, whom the IDF doesn’t get into those spaces. More missiles reach inside Israel, the population centers. All Dan covered this application ranges – Syria, Lebanon and Iran. The heads of these missiles is becoming much more lethal, consisting of hundreds of pounds. Increasing accuracy. All this makes distributed array, hidden and embedded within the urban environment, every tenth House in Lebanon have missiles or launch position storage. “
Another explosive charge that head “disappeared from the battlefield”, and that if the company had previously raised
Reflects to the battlefield would discover enemy creatures or רק”ם-today, against Lebanon or the Gaza Strip – doesn’t look like anything. “The battlefield wandered into urban space, and look the same.
The civilian fold within modern military weapons in large quantities: contact headquarters facilities, missile launch stations and many warehouses. While hatmron went inside, firing on civilian population centers in Tel Aviv “, described the star, champion noted that this” force change on the intelligence, to expose this coverage and allow for better intelligence so that hatmron to be effective.
Another trend which the planetary champion, the growth of several areas which are evolving terrorist cells in the region. “In Syria, and elsewhere, is Iran’s smuggling routes and terrorist organizations, and it is no wonder that the Middle East becomes the munitions depot in the world. Sinai is the poster child for a
It governance is very low, and more importantly, an area where terrorist groups are based and make it another arena in which terrorist activity can be performed. Last year prevented, since the attack in Eilat several attacks that left Gaza via Sinai. “Islamic Jihad and working in Syria, and many other places.
“Iran could have a nuclear weapon within a year.”
Given all these, the Iranian threat keeps an buildup ceases.
“Iran continues to promote capabilities, while developing its nuclear program and trying to obtain a nuclear military capability. Most of the intelligence community agree on our intelligence in the field of nuclear program.
According to the planetary champion, Iran denies three major reasons for the production of military nuclear: creating regional hegemony, deterrence and international player. “Iran has enough material now amount to four nuclear bombs. It continues to issue that kind of material and continues to argue that she manages the program for peaceful purposes and civilian targets.
Evidence we have shows that it continues to pursue nuclear weapons development and military promotion, “he said.
Head said Iran gave “is in a position to obtain nuclear weapons almost does not depend on development but a decision. Once the decision to Khamenei to break forward and accelerate the production of explosive device Sunday, will take years to accomplish the task. Since then, take a year or two to five missiles with nuclear warheads.
At the same time, advance estimates that Iran gave the arrow ring is tightening, as the international spotlight mainly on Greece returned to engage in systematic activities. “The sanctions give
Wakeful, appreciated the champion comets said that Syria has “nearly 16 percent unemployment, inflation of 24 percent and zero growth. The pressure is felt on the streets, markets, and will intensify in the coming months. “
However, the top charge estimates that all the pressures exerted on Iran did not lead her to change but as itatzmo, there is potential for shridotho the regime fears, consider attitudes “.
The strengthened role of charge as IDF operation.
Meanwhile, referring to the Syrian arena gave head and determined that it meets “the radical axis.” Esteem, “Assad’s regime in recent weeks under pressure. Violence, demonstrations and cultural events that are close to the center of Damascus. The army desertions and daily cycles of absorbing the latest draft did not report more
Than 30%. The army attacked and is unable to fulfill its missions and is ineffective.
However, military free Syria and solidifies and extensive grounds.
The ring around Assad is cracks, realize that the heart problem might is Assad himself — even among his allies. In our assessment, the Assad regime will continue drifting until the inevitable, “added the top charge.
Alongside all this sum, and gave the head of Israeli deterrence is maintained. Alongside
We are facing the Middle East will be more hostile, more asalmisti, more
Between the various affinities between different countries. Less controlled by regimes and less subject to influence. The instability will be fixed, which means that must
We must prepare for changes and twists and turns.
“Military Intelligence Directorate was conducted. We maintain a comprehensive process that our quiz and leave one stone. We examine critically sharp knife the tamitno into reality. We need to provide more intelligence to more areas, deep streams and social trends and social networks. We need to provide operational intelligence to uncover the values and challenges in the field, “said head, who gave further concluded that” the resolution will be higher and more accessible to the various arms of the IDF, and we need to act in the Cyber dimension. The strengthened role of charge as operation, and above all it takes charge of its intensity, providing national and strategic intelligence that has all the ingredients to the clear picture to policymakers.
Translated from Hebrew